The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday warned that it would face the "global crisis in the supply of crude oil in the next decade" if countries that normally produce oil, mostly in the Middle East, do not increase investment in extraction projects.
Fatih Birol, director general of the agency, warned that this forthcoming crisis is "a major challenge" for the global "energy security", which in London presents the annual report "Global Energy Perspectives 2018", according to the EFE agency.
"Oil markets are entering a new phase of high volatility and uncertainty due to changes in the fundamentals of the sector, as well as because of the greater connection between geopolitics and energy," he said.
In its report, the International Energy Agency notes that while investments in conventional oil projects have been decreasing in the Middle East since 2014, the United States is acquiring petroleum from oil and gas from shale and is expected to become the first planet producer in 2025.
However, exports to the United States are unlikely The UU could compensate for the shortage of supply expected by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries over the medium-term, which would lead to the above-mentioned crisis.
If conventional oil producers do not provide their output, the world would "strongly depend on the United States," said Tim Gould, head of the IEA's energy supply and investment department.
In its report, the Agency estimates that global demand for energy will increase by more than 25% by 2040 – in particular in Asia and especially in India – and that 80% of this growth will correspond to fossil fuels, especially oils.
Crude consumption will increase to around 106 million barrels per day in the petrochemical and transport sectors in 2040, such as airplanes, trucks and cargo ships, and in the case of cars will fall after 2025.
"Despite the progress of renewable energy sources and a gradual trend in electricity, the system still relies heavily on fossil fuels", which includes raw, coal or natural gas, Birol said.
Demand for natural gas is "rising", with China in the lead, while among renewable sources, solar energy is progressing "thanks to government policies," "other low-emission technologies need more momentum," the agency notes.
In order to maintain global energy consumption, it estimates that about 2 trillion dollars of annual investments will be required to supply energy over the next 25 years, while conventional oil producers would almost double their current investments.
In this year's report, the agency analyzes the expansion of electricity as a source of energy in the economy, which is "increasingly digitizing" and increasing demand for electric vehicles.
Renewable energy sources need to be encouraged to make the production of electricity sustainable and beneficial to the environment, and governments must "invest in improving the supply system" as well as saving and efficient systems, the agency notes.
However, Laura Cozzi, the second author of the study, said that it is unlikely today that the entire economy will be "electrified" and today it will be 20%.
Birol in London said that another serious problem in the energy sector is the "difference between agreed targets against climate change and actual market developments".
The economist regretted that "after three straight years, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 1.6% in 2017 and expect this year to reach a new record", which is "far from" the objectives of the Paris Agreement of the year 2015.
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