First of all, a few words about events in the past week:
-. Recall that with a small margin (55% compared to 45%), experts voted to further strengthen the dollar, with the minimum annual amount of 1,1300 being recorded on 15 August as a target. This forecast was realized by 100%, and on the last day of October it touched the bottom at this point, which also facilitated the US President's optimism about the negotiations with China. True, in contrast to D. Trump, Larry Fink, head of one of the largest investment funds of BlackRock, said he expects the launch of a major trade war with China in the coming weeks.
The joy of "bulls" was short-lived. At the beginning of November, the market met with an increase in appetite for risky investments, which was complemented by news of progress in the negotiations in Brexit. As a result, the couple spilled to a level of 1.1455, after which they all froze in anticipation of data on the US labor market, which, as we expected, strengthened the dollar a bit. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector () increased more than 2 times (from 118 K to 250 K), which allowed the dollar to return about 65 points. The result was that the couple ended a five-day week at the same place where it started, in Zone 1.1390;
-. According to experts, the British currency fell in the first half of the week and tried to reach the lowest point in 2018 – 1,2660. However, the beginning of November was a turning point for this couple. In the background of news of the possible signing of the agreement with the EU on Brexit, the pound soon showed an impressive growth, which increased by 340 points. The couple met with the end of the week's session at 1.2960 – in a zone that could be conditionally defined as a point of departure for the last three months;
-. The announcement for this pair was also completely accurate. We recall that the majority of experts (70%) supported by the graphic analysis voted to boost the dollar and the growth of the pair. Heights 112.85 and 113.35 were named goals. It all happened in reality. On Tuesday, the pair reached a resistance of 112.85, broke and set weekly high to 113.38. After that, it withdrew to the level of 112.55, and the last word of the week increased to 113.20;
– cryptocurrency. Our forecast said that, in the absence of truly important news, the pair would continue to move within narrow ranges of $ 6,325-6,660 with the dominance of intergovernmental feelings. The next support was about $ 6,100. With this low tolerance, this scenario was realized – it moved away from the resistance of 6,550, and the pair went to the underside of the side channel 6,320. In the middle of the week, the bears managed to break through and Bitcoin descended to the horizon 6.240, but quickly turned and climbed to the middle of the side channel in the 6.425 range. What has been confirmed by the assumption that the rates have fallen to the level of profitability of mining, the main players are starting to actively buy coins, which makes the quotes quickly return to the initial level.
Most Altcoins peaked the fate of Bitcoin – many, such as ethereum () and lightcoin (), ended a week with a small, barely noticeable decrease, while others, like, ended with a zero result.
As for the next week's forecasts, summarizing the views of many experts, as well as forecasts based on various technical and graphic methods of analysis, we can say the following:
– EUR / USD. This week, we are facing two important events that can greatly affect the fate of all dollar couples. These are the mid-term elections in the US on November 6 and November 8, followed by comments from the Fed chief, as usual. We can add to this the falling oil prices, the much unexpected US presidential statements and the optimism about the British withdrawal agreement from the EU, which has a positive impact on quotations not only for the pound, but also for the euro.
On this turbulent background, most experts (60%) supported by the graphic analysis landed with the European currency and waited for the couple to rise to the range 1.1480-1.1525. The nearest resistor is 1.1445.
By contrast, we see 40% of analysts and a huge number of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. The supporters of the "bear" speak about the weak economic indicators of the euro area, the problems of Italy, and expect the couple to test the support again 1.1300, but in case of its breakthrough, it fell to the horizon 1.1210. The next target is 1.1100;
– GBP / USD. In addition to progress in the negotiations in Brexit, last week's growth continued to support the statement by Bank of England Mark Carney, Chief Executive Officer, that the regulator is willing to raise the interest rate in any case, including the "complex Brexit". We are talking about raising the rate to 1.5% in three years (previously about 1% was said).
However, the positive effect of Carney's promises was short-term, and for a week, 50% of experts expect the British currency to weaken. In their opinion, the pair should try again at least on October 30 in zone 1.2700, and then even lower – to the lowest value in August of 1.2660.
An alternative aspect is 40% of the experts. With the support of graphic analysis and almost 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on H4, they voted for further growth of the pair, at least up to the height of 1.3100. The next goal is 1.3220.
Finally, the remaining 10% of the experts, along with the indicators on D1, had a neutral position waiting for the side movement of the pair, supported by 1.2820;
– USD / JPY. On Monday, November 5, a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan will take place. But from the first, even from the second event, the market has long been waiting for any surprises. Among the experts, bulls have a slight advantage (55% compared to 45%). The vast majority of oscillators and motion indicators on both H4 and D1 are also colored green, although 10% of the oscillators on the D1 are already transmitting pair pair signals. Supporting levels 112.55, 111.80 and 110.75, resistance 114.05 114.55;
– cryptocurrency. Despite the fact that the price of Bitcoin and other top coins has fluctuated for quite a long time in quite narrow ranges, it is obvious early in the day that this market has died. Although the total capitalization is still close to $ 200 billion, the daily trading volume is still quite impressive – about $ 4.2 billion. The number of transactions (250,000 per day) indicates that traders are not in a hurry to work with digital assets.
Of course, the inflow of new large investors has not been visible for a long time, and in the future we can expect an increase in quotations. It is expected that by the end of the year such large companies as ICE (the parent company NYSE) and Fidelity Investment will launch their trade cryptoplatforms, which will undoubtedly contribute to the increase in investment flows. They are quite optimistic about the future of the crypt of the bank and experts of such a valued bank as Morgan Stanley (NYSE), who published the survey in question.
In the meantime, following a relatively neutral news background, the forecasts remain virtually unchanged – the BTC / USD pair will continue to move in a narrow range of $ 6,200-6,660, with a predominant bearish feeling. The next rebate is 6.780, the next support is about $ 6.100.
Anna Gorenkova and Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not recommendations for investments or instructions for working on financial markets and are purely for information purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.