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ASEAN + 3 think tank cat economic growth forecasts


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By Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio, Reporter

The ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised downwards its Filipino economic growth forecast for 2020 to 6.5% of its previous 6.6% outlook in May, following the July. ASEAN + 3 Regional Economic Outlook monthly update Released on Tuesday, the projection of 2019 was retained by the 6.3% in June but down from 6.4% in May.

"AMRO has revised the growth forecast growth of the Philippines (gross domestic product) slightly downward to 6.3% for 2019 and 6.5% by 2020 due to a Gloomer global growth outlook and a sharp slowdown in Philippines economy Q1 2019," AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor said in an e-mail.

Mr. Koran added: "The resident GDP growth declined to 5.6% in Q1 2019, the lowest since Q1 2015, due to some budget approval delaying constraining government spending in addition to the weakening external demand.

"Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to recover significantly, as the government started to ramp up spending and ease the monetary policy."

For the entire ASEAN + 3 region – which includes the 10th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members plus China, Japan and Korea – Amro cut economic growth to 4.9% for the year and 2020, from May projections from 5.1% and 5%, respectively, due to "continuing weakness in manufacturing and exporting backlogs."

Ask why AMRO expects from the Philippines in the second half of President Rudrigo R. Duterte's six-year term, Mr. Khor said, "The economic growth of the Philippines is expected to recover ahead."

The sleepovers from US There. China's trade conflicts on the Philippines economy may not be significant. However, a further escalation of trade conflicts could lead to a sharp global slowdown that could trigger Philippines economic growth, "he said.

In this context, the emphasis of politics should be more oriented towards support growth, and avoid undermining macro-stability. The government should continue the reform agenda to continue to improve growth potential. "

AMRO – First established as a company in April 2011 and transformed into an international organization in February 2016 – conducts macroeconomic surveillance and supports implementation of the Chiang Mai Initiative multilateralization currency swap arrangement adopted by the 10 ASEAN members, as well as China, Japan and South Korea. To help avoid any financial crunch.

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