Minister of Finance Abderrahmane Raouyi presented the National People's Congress (NPC), the draft financial law (PLF) 2019 in the plenary session, chaired by Mouad Bouchareb, in the presence of government members.
The law foresees a growth of 2.9% for the financial year 2019, compared with a growth of 3.2% excluding hydrocarbons. It was developed on the basis of the reference price of USD 50 / USD / SOD of the Algerian oil "Sahara Blend" and based on the market price of USD 60.
As for the Algerian exchange rate of the dinar, it should be about 118 dinars / dollar, the average annual price for the period 2019-2021 with 4.5% inflation in 2019 and 3.9% in 2020 and 3, 5% in 2021.
In anticipation of a 1% reduction in the volume of oil exports to $ 33.2 billion in 2019, carbon-free growth and public works of 4.7% are expected, industry (5%), agriculture (3.7%) and market and non-market services (1.8%).
In the medium term, economic growth in 2020 will increase to 3.4%, and in 2021, 3.2%, with an average hydrocarbon free growth of 3.1% over 2020-21, according to PLF forecasts. also an increase in the volume of hydrocarbon exports of 4.2% in 2020 with revenues estimated at USD 34.5 billion and 2% in 2021 with USD 35.2 billion in revenue.
Foreign currency reserves in 2019 amount to less than USD 62 billion
According to the measures taken by the government to regulate imports, the law foresees, says Raouy, to reduce imports of goods to $ 44 billion in 2019, $ 42.9 billion in 2020 and $ 41.8 billion in 2021.
As a result, the trade balance deficit will gradually decrease from $ 10.4 billion in 2019 to $ 8.2 billion in 2020 and $ 6.4 billion in 2021.
In the period 2019-2021, the PLF predicts a steady decline in the balance of payments, which is projected to increase from $ 17.2 billion in 2019 to $ 14.2 billion in 2020 and then to $ 14 billion in 2021.
This decline will lead to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves to USD 62 billion in 2019, then USD 47.8 billion in 2020, and then USD 20.8 billion in 2021.
PLF for 2019 predicts a 10.9% drop in investment expenditure and a 8.1% increase in operating expenses, representing a 10.4% national deficit as compared to gross domestic product (GDP) (against -11% in 2018).
Of the total estimated expenditure of 8,557.2 billion Yen, the account envisages an increase in operating costs of 4,954.5 billion DA in 2019 (+ 8.1%) of capital expenditure estimated at 3,602.7 billion Yen (-10 , 9%).
The forecast of budget revenues for 2019 amounts to 6,507.9 billion Yen, including the 2,714.5 billion YES oil taxation included in the budget.
Oil taxation is expected to reach 3.201.4 billion Yen in 2019.
However, the deficit deficit forecast in comparison with gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 will be reduced to -5.7% and in 2021 -5%, in line with the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance.
Financing the treasury deficit between 2019 and 2021 "will be some kind of pressure, despite the use of unconventional financing and withdrawal from the Revenue Management Fund during this period".
However, the need for non-conventional financing will "fall", which will amount to -1,874.4 billion Yen in 2019, -746.5 billion Yen in 2020, and -796.5 billion Ya in 2021, says the Minister.
Legislative provisions in the bill are aimed at improving state revenues, harmonizing and simplifying procedures, combating corruption and fiscal evasion, in addition to promoting and promoting productive investment and improving bank interest rates for the benefit of citizens.
The wording is an extension of the country's efforts to mitigate the negative impact of the recession of financial resources on the national economy in a context characterized by tensions on the internal and external balance of the country as a result of the decline in oil prices.
To this end, the purpose of the Public Expenditure Control Act is to reduce the consequences of these tensions in the public treasury.
At the end of the Minister's presentation, the Rapporteur of the Committee on Finance and Budget of the Assembly read the committee's preliminary report on the draft law prior to the start of the debate by Members.
On Monday, the minister will respond to Members' concerns about the bill, which will be voted on by the lower parliamentary assembly on Thursday.