ASX ready for lower open, Wall St slips, USA oil enters the bear market


Australian stock market futures are lower, as investors expect RBA to keep interest rates. ASX futures contracted 9 points at 8.45 AEDT. $ A has slipped.

In New York, S & P 500 fell sharply, down 0.3 percent, as all three criteria lost the final loss. Dow finished straight. American oil entered the Bear market.

RBA will announce its latest monetary policy statement this morning and expects it to confirm the bank's optimism about the outlook. Last week, the Bank brought small adjustments to economic growth forecasts and inflation forecasts, and a slight downward slump in unemployment.

"It's also hard to see that AUD is too much of an additional increase from today's" RBA statement, "said David de Garis, head of the NAB economy in the morning message.

"Press releases after Tuesday's press release showed that this year and next year will increase from 3.0% to 3½% and almost mandatory reduction of the medium-term unemployment rate to 4¾% by 2020 from 5-5%, since unemployment already at 5%, "said Mr. de Garis. "While RBA has upgraded growth forecasts, they have even seen uncertainties about spending forecasts and housing market problems, which the market and commentators are well equipped."


Earlier, the Federal Reserve said, politicians voted to keep interest rates evenly and said that the current strong increase in jobs and household spending has kept the economy on the right track.

"As is generally expected, the Fed has stepped to the level of today on hold and there was nothing in the policy statement that suggests officials move from their interest rate plans in December," Capital Economics, "Michael Pearce said in a note .

"Attention was focused on a minor change in the statement after the end of the meeting, which, if anything, was somewhat inward," said Mr Pearce.

Mr Pearce said investment growth in underlying companies, formerly described as 'strong', was perceived as 'rapidly settled at the beginning of the year', suggesting a sharp slowdown in investment, which was shown in GDP data in the third quarter. "But with the improvement of jobs and general economic activity, which is still described as growth with a" strong "rate and inflation in line with the goal, this will not be enough to stop the Fed hiking."

It puts the capital economy at a decade's speed and two more visits in 2019.

TD Securities said that "the risks remain" roughly balanced, "as the Fed is in the best possible rate of December in our opinion."

Market rates have already set prices in the 95% quota of December horse races and 2.2 increases in 2019, which shows that prices are fairly fair at the current stage, TD said.

Oil in New York fell to the bear market, putting pressure on OPEC and its allies that only a few months after the addition of barrels reduced production.

The futures fell by 1.6 percent and have fallen to more than 20 percent since October, which corresponded to the common definition of the bear market. The faster than the expected inventory, the speculators resisted speculation that prices could reach $ 100. The production of raw weapons in the US has accelerated to new records, while OPEC production is the highest in years and the abandonment will allow some Iranian raw to enter the market despite US sanctions.

"The sentiment has moved," said Bloomberg, Bart Melek, head of the global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. "OPEC has become more cruel than we thought, and secondly, these omissions become an obstacle to price support."

The West Texas Intermediate oil futures contract for December delivery dropped to US $ 1 to settle at a price of $ 60.67 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since March. Futures fell on the ninth day, the longest loss since 2014. WTI on October 3 settled for $ 76.41 a barrel.

Technical indicators signal that return can occur soon, with an index of 14 days relative power below 30 that signals the market is exceeded.

Today's agenda

Local data: RBA statement on monetary policy at 11.30 am AEDT, Housing finance in September

Overseas data: China October PPI and CPI; Of GDP in the third quarter in the United Kingdom; US PPI final October, Consumer sentiment University in Michign in November

Highlights of the market

SPI forward contracts by 9 points or 0.2% to 5904 at 8.45 AEDT

AUD -0.2% to 72.57 US cents (highest peak 73.02)

On Wall St: Dow Housing S & P 500 -0,3% Nasdaq -0,5%

In New York, BHP -1.6% Rio -0.2% atlassian -2.1% Tesla + 0.9%

In Europe: Stoxx 50 -0.2% FTSE + 0.3% CAC -0.1% DAX -0.5%

Gold spot -0.1% to $ 1224.82 per ounce at 13.35 in New York

Brent oil -1.5% to USD 71.01 per barrel

US oil -1.3% to $ US60.89 per barrel

Iron ore + 1.3% to US $ 76.27 per ton

Dalian iron ore + 1.4% to 522 yuan

LME aluminum + 0.3% to 1 990 USD per ton

LME copper at $ 6155 ton

2-year yield: US 2.97% Australia 2.10%

5-year yield: US 3.09% Australia 2.33%

10-year yield: US 3.24% Australia 2.78% Germany 0.45%

10-year return on profits between USA and Australia at 8.50 AEDT: 46 basis points

From today's financial review

Banks reject Hayney's reform ideas: the four big banks have begun a strong defense of vertical integration, loan benchmarks and executive vouchers, in response to the Senate Commission's interim report.

Shorten the bars to the negative drive design: Bill Shorten quickly advocated his plans to limit the negative gearbox. Scott Morrison claims that Australia will assess AAA credit rating.

Iron Woman: Meet Fortezcue's Elizabeth Gaines: As Fortescue strives to produce a higher degree of iron ore and reduce pricing, Executive Director Elizabeth Gaines has its sights that set on pushing a mining company out of its center.

United States

On Thursday, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq dropped slightly after the Federal Republic of Germany's declaration, while energy supplies were the biggest response to S & P, as crude oil prices fell in the US.

The Fed is holding the right economy on the go: the US Federal Reserve has kept the interest rate stable and said that the current strong increase in jobs and household consumption keeps the economy on track.

"The Fed has acknowledged that a part of the economy is a bit slow, but it does not deter its" gradual increase in language. "Not so," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, Richmond, Virginia. "There is absolutely nothing to indicate what the market was hoping to be a more receptive posture. So, I think this is more than what we call hawkish."

Telstra CFO Robyn Denholm will be president of Tesla: Financial Officer Telstra Robyn Denholm leaves a telecommunications giant to replace Elon Muska as President of Tesla.

Quincy Krosby, the chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey, said companies were spending austerity on the uncertainty of the US-China trade war.

"The slowdown in corporate spending can slow down the support of the stock market," Krosby said. "Is the Fed dependent on data or is it maintenance of a rigid schedule to raise the rate in 2019? What would cause the Fed to suspend it? From this statement today it appears that they are looking at everything that could slow down the economy."

The S & P banking index ended today with a 0.4% gain, as US Treasury yields surged as bank gains made use of rising rates.

Energy stocks are the biggest S & P resistor with a 2.2% drop, as US crude oil futures contracts confirmed the bear market, which has fallen more than 20 percent since October 3, as investors focused on the rising global crude care, which is growing faster than many expected.


European shares were slightly higher on Thursday, as strong results from Societe Generale, Commerzbank and Sodexo have calmed concerns about business earnings.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was close to 0.2 percent. In the early deals, the index reached its highest value since October 10th.

The leading stock index of the eurozone fell by 0.3 percent, while the German German DAX fell by 0.5 percent and the French CAC by 0.1 percent lower.

The shares in the third largest Italian lender Banco BPM reached as much as 8.9 per cent, then rose by 2.6 per cent, according to net profit forecasts for the third quarter due to lower costs and sales of assets that helped compensate for flat-rate fees and a drop in interest rates revenue.

Commerzbank and SocGen, after the modernization of solid earnings, increased by 5.2 percent or 2.4 percent.

Investors have launched news that the UBS, the largest Swiss bank, faces another potentially costly legal battle, as the US Department of Justice prepares civilian costs for the sale of mortgage securities before the crisis in 2008.

The bank claimed that it would strongly object to each complaint.

Analysts of the Zuercher Cantonal Bank estimated more than half of the 1.2 billion Swiss francs that UBS had allocated to uncontested legal risks, was intended for the US case.

Shares in the Swiss bank grew by 1.3 percent.


The Hang Seng Index was up 0.3 percent to 26,227.72 points, while China's 0.6 percent index reached 10,703.59 points.

Working with us, China urges Australia: China has called on Australia to co-operate with funding of regional infrastructure, after Scott Morrison announced $ 3 billion of loans and donations to the South-East Pacific.

Chinese monetary influence is becoming a new sensitivity – AFR View: Australia deals with Chinese money in the Pacific Islands and keeps it from its own sensitive infrastructure.

Around the region, the MSCI index at Asian level ex-Japan was stronger by 0.6 percent and the Japanese index Nikkei by 1.8 percent.

All but one of the 33 Topix subsectors were in a positive territory. The wider Topix rose by 1.7 percent to 1,681.25. Further questions surpassed those that are decreasing from 1733 to 324.

Toshiba jumped 13 percent for almost two years and reached the highest daily profit since July 2017 after the company said it was liquidating its British nuclear power plant and selling its LNG company in the US.

The company also announced a redemption plan of up to 40 percent of its own shares.


The Fed is holding the right economy on the go: the US Federal Reserve has kept the interest rate stable and said that the current strong increase in jobs and household consumption keeps the economy on track.

Larry Fink is struggling with lonely deficits: While the Americans watched this week's mid-term results, Larry Fink pointed to the dangerous financial situation in the country halfway.

Sterling consolidated profits after a three-day rally, such as a rising dollar and hopes for an immediate Brexit deal, prompted investors to profit.

With a recovery dollar, the pound fell by 0.2 percent and trading at US $ 1.31106, with a two-week increase on Wednesday, amounting to 1.31 million US dollars. It was generally traded in relation to the euro of 87.01 pence.

"The exchange rate market is still hoping for a friendly deal, because the look at the volatility shows that it is still relaxed by March 2019," said Antje Praefcke, a currency analyst at Commerzbank. "But I urge caution: there is still a rebellion in the British government," she added.


Baker insisted on Thursday that traders weighed down the dollar's decline and the decline in Chinese metal imports due to improved Chinese chances of growth.

China, which consumes almost half of the world's copper, recorded a 19-percent monthly decline in copper imports, data showed. The reduction was partly related to the impact of holidays.

The three-month-old copper on the London metal battle ended at $ 6155 per tonne, while aluminum rose 0.3 percent to $ 1.90.

"In the fourth quarter, we would still expect relatively high refined imports of copper, as it was a wide-open offer," said Colin Hamilton, head of BMO Capital Markets research.

Japan's Sumitomo cut its forecast for the whole year, which accused lower prices than expected metals, reduced nickel production and the US-China trade conflict.

After falling by as much as 1.5 percent to 3878 yuan per tonne – the lowest since July 27 – the most active January lining on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 1.2 percent to 3986 yuan.

Mills increase production of steel, while profits remain strong, thereby encouraging more supply in the market, said the iron ore trader in Shanghai. "Some market players are looking at the weaker steel market next year," he said.

Data from the Iron and Steel Association of China showed that the average daily production of raw steel in Member States' mills amounted to 1.97 million tonnes from 1 to 20 October, almost as high as 1.98 million tonnes in September.

Australian Sharemarket

Fidelity has sold Corporate Travel after its price profits: After a period of successful stock in a fast-growing state, the Fidelity International Fund Manager sold the target for a short-selling Corporate Travel Management company.

Australian shares rose to nearly three weeks on Thursday. The reference index S & P / ASX 200 closed 31.3 points, or 0.5 percent, to 5928.2.

Most of the major banks were among the market leaders on Thursday despite the APRA, which announced that it would increase the total capital requirement for four main banks by 4 to 5 percentage points of risk-weighted assets within five years.

NAB was the only big bank that fell when it traded on the previous dividend, and the closing of the session was 3.6 percent lower than US $ 24.93.

Street Talk

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Private equity is hungry to deal with suppliers of Meat & Wine Co.

with Reuters, Bloomberg, AAP

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