Inflation can be high, but the situation is not better elsewhere.

The good world ends Brussels: the autumn economic forecast of the European Commission foresees a gradual slowdown in growth over the coming years.

GDP is expected to moderate in the euro area from a ten-year high of 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 and a further reduction, which will decrease by 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2019 . The same trend is expected for 27 EU Member States: the forecast for growth will be 2.2% for 2018, 2.0% for 2019 and 1.9% for 2020.

The Commission is still not optimistic about Hungary: by 4.9% this year, it is projected to increase by 4.3% this year, only 3.4% next year, and only 2.6% by 2020, analysts' growth rate .

The government forecasts expansion over 4 percent over the next few years.

According to the committee, the slowdown is a consequence of the lack of existing capacity in the construction sector, and nevertheless requires moderate growth, with the level of public investment increasing to record levels in 2020. By 2019, a record in housing construction is also expected – the analysis does not yet mean an extension the system of preferential housing, announced by the government at the beginning of the week.

Brussels expects a slowdown in consumption growth, partly due to a reduction in the impact of real wage increases, partly because housing loans are rising again, and households will again pay meals. In any case, analysts hope that wages will continue to be confronted with a large labor shortage.

This may also aggravate the external trade balance due to the fact that domestic consumption – and even imports – is increasing, and demand is decreasing in foreign markets. Inflation may remain high: in the next year, Brussels sees a 3.3% drop in the budget, but the body is next year 3%. It just turned out that inflation rose to 3.8 percent in October, as it was not observed since 2012.

Part of the projection for Hungary is available on this site.

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