OPEC reached an agreement on whether the oil prices could restart the rise? Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are not optimistic – Wall Street


After OPEC + reached a market-reduced cut-off agreement, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley issued a warning that there was an uncertainty about how to implement the relevant production reduction agreement that will restrain the continued rise in oil prices.

Goldman Sachs analyst Dumiz Courvalin and Jeffrey Kury pointed out in their latest research report that the rebound in oil prices (after the production cuts have already reached) depends on the actual evidence that inventory declines and production cuts are implemented:

This demand for definitive evidence of the alarming excess of the global oil market and the lack of clear production cuts in the second half of 2018.

Morgan Stanley analyst Martin Rats said that although the agreement reached by OPEC + has reduced the possibility of oversupply, it is unlikely that oil prices will reach four years high in October. It is expected that by the second quarter of 2019, crude oil prices will reach $ 67.50 per barrel, which is $ 10 lower than the previous estimated bank.

Last Friday, after a long multi-party game, OPEC and Russia-non-OPEC oil producer OPEC + reached an agreement in Vienna to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day of January next year, from which OPEC reduced production by 800,000 barrels per Day. Day. OPEC will appreciate production cuts in April next year. Iran claims to be exempt from production cats.

The complete reduction in production of this OPEC + program is higher than the planned negotiation level disclosed by the refusal representative: 1,000,000 barrels per day. International oil prices have risen steadily, with a 5% increase in the day. The media said that after Russia proposed a 2% reduction in Russia's production, Brent oil futures prices rose by about 6% in intraday trading, which is expected to hit the biggest one-day win since December 2016.

The Wall Street Journal noted that the compliance demonstrates Russia's new influence as a oil producing country and the importance of Russia's alliance with Saudi Arabia. The agreement also shows that Saudi Arabia has transferred part of the market power to Russia.

The production cats are facing huge pressure from Trump.

The words of the Street Statements that earlier said that on the day before the April strike, Trumus National Commemoration Day on Wednesday did not forget to send a appeal: I hope that OPEC will maintain the current oil flow and not restrict it. The world does not want to see, no need for higher oil prices! Although the Saudi Crown Prince was previously asked about the murder of a Saudi journalist, Tramp still expressed his support for the Saudi government last month. His recent call for oil prices once made the prospect of a decision to cut production confusing.

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