Small and nothing lasted the optimism with which they opened the global markets this month, after yesterday the three main indicators of Wall Street recorded declined higher than 3%.
The reversal of the Treasury Bund curve, which occurs for the first time in more than a decade, makes investors nervous, as it usually anticipates a time of economic recession in the United States, as it was in 2006 before the financial crisis . .
In particular, this movement implies that short-term returns are larger than long-term ones.
At the moment, the curve showing the gap between the Treasury Bound for two and five years is already in negative territory, and the one that shows the difference between the three and five year Bonds (see infographic).
However, it is the curve of the short-term bond, of two years, and the long-term, ten, which always captures the attention of analysts.
In this case, it is still not included in the score of 11.68 basis points, but it catches concerns that its current level represents half of what is observed a week ago and that it keeps gaining distance from the 54 basic points with the beginning of the year.
In this context, the Nasdaq, which carried out the corrections of the last two months, was up 3.8% yesterday, but the S & P 500 was 3.2% and the Dow Jones 3.1%.
"It is the fear of the wear curve invested and what means for the economy" which push the markets, says Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, to Reuters. "It's a precursor to a recession," he added.
However, there are those who try to put cold cloths. Curtin Rooney, director of macroeconomic strategy at Bulletick Capital Markets, told Pulso that even if the long and short-term tie curve has been reversed, "it does not mean recession," since the move would be "quite temporary."
In this framework, he believes that investors have passed some other events. "Theresa May has lost support in the Brexit; the major economic adviser to Donald Trump,
Larry Koudlou, saying that there is still no agreement with China; A voting member of the Feed Committee said that there are still reasons to raise the rate, and ultimately, the curve does not help, "Rooney said.
Indeed, although in the Old Continent these losses were much more limited than on the other side of the Atlantic (-0.8%, the Euro Stoxx), the divorce process between the United Kingdom and the EU. Continues to add uncertainty.
In the first five days of discussions in the British Parliament, both supporters and breiters have expressed their disagreement with the divorce plan agreed with Brussels, which depends on the order of the block and the future of May as prime minister.
On the other hand, among the New York investors, the words of Larry Koudow, which the previous day pointed out that with Beijing have "commitments," that "presumably implemented", which was interpreted as something less optimistic, in relation to Previously expressed by the White House.
Then it was the same US. It. President, Donald Trump, who raised the future of the trade war. If an agreement with China is not possible, "I am a human tariff," the president said that the negotiations between the two nations have already begun.