Published on January 4, 2019 |
Via Zakhari Shahan
January 4, 2019 By Zachary Shahan
The electric car story of the year – nay, d Car History of the Year – Tesla Model 3 is the industry by storm. Just as we were predicting 3 or 4 years ago, TESLA's ability to ramp up production from a more affordable, more mass market model was sign chilling down other automakers & # 39; Spines – or it should be. I will revisit a famous old quote to explain the ongoing story in a different way:
When they came for the great luxury sedans, I did not say anything. When they came for the great luxury suites, I did not say anything. When they came to the midsize luxury sedans, I did not say anything. When they came for my bread & butter Gazmeal, there was no gas driver left to say anything.
As you can see in the next two charts (sales charts for December and all of 2018), lining the Tesla model 3 against all the small & midsize luxury cars on the market is embarrassing … for the gas moons. One of the cars does not belong:
In the following chart, note that you can apply from month to month to see how Tesla model 3 sales areas throughout the year.
As I've done in the past few months, for the next two charts, I have combined sales of all small & midsize luxury cars for each brand. I think that is the better way to compare since Tesla has little luxury cars on the market and only one in the midsize category. In other words, if you want a small Tesla, you have to pay on the moderately sized model 3, and if you want a midsized tesla, you have only one option.
Model 3 still wins – by a wide margin – in December, for the full year, and actually every month since July.
|Car model||December sales||Segment Share|
|TESLA model 3 (eats.)||25,570||32%|
|Mercedes C + CL + CLS + E-Class||13,549||17%|
|BMW 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 Series||10,574||13%|
|Lexus IT + is + GS + RC||8,506||11%|
|Audi A3 + A4 + A5 + A6||7,477||9%|
|Infinity C50 + C60 + C70||4,681||6%|
|Acura TLX + XLX||3.047||4%|
|Buick Cascada + Regal + Lacrosse||2,388||3%|
|Volvo 60 + 90||966||1%|
There are a few ways to look at all the data combined. Let's consider them.
1. First, you can assume that the TESLA model 3 is just far more competitive – a much more compelling machine – like the other small & midsize luxury cars on the market.
That would explain why model 3 has been moderating the competition, since Tesla got the production up to a high level, and even for the full year, despite not high production for the year.
2. Another possibility is that Tesla has years of demand all built up and delivered in one year. In other words, this argument assumes that TESLA has fulfilled basically all the requirements for the model 3 for another year or two – or something like that.
One problem with this thesis is that ~ 75% of sales were in the fourth quarter No, no Reservations. These were No, no Buyers who set up $ 1,000 in 2016 or 2017 to reserve a car for early booking. That implies that the massive Q4 demand was not just pent-up demand for the car.
3. Another possibility is that model 3 sales are so great because the $ 7,500 US $ There. Federal Tax Credit for EWS would be cut in half on January 1, 2019, for Tesla buyers.
While surely contributing to some of these 2018 deliveries, I've postulated that the vast majority of potential buyers don't even know about tax credit, and don't even know about the car. Even quite well informed, people I know are scared almost nothing about electric vehicles and the model 3 in particular before I talk to them – and maybe even after I speak to them. ?
The phasing out tax credit could have stimulated many sales in 2018, but I assume it will again stimulate many sales in 2019 how many more people learn about it and the car. In addition, Tesla has already abandoned prices by $ 2,000 to help account for the credit, and it will continue to offer low-priced versions of model 3 in the next square.
One reason not highlighted in all of the above scenarios is what role of word-of-mouth sales and seeing the car on the road do for demand going forward. With ~ 140,000 model 3s on US There. Roads Today, a humongous new part of the population will all of a sudden learn about the car and be inspired to buy it. I think that Tesla bears are underestimating how much exposure will have.
At the end of the story, the Tesla model 3 is the safest car in the world. There. The car market – by far – and the next two cars behind it are also teasless – the model Z at # 2 and model X at # 3. It is also the fastest car in its price range and has the most advanced tech of virtually no car on the market. Moreover, low total cost of ownership makes it financially competitive with much lower quality models, as well as the highly popular Toyota Camry and Honda Accord.
What does the Tesla model 3's super high sales explosion explain in 2018? No one knows the exact formula that led to 140,000 sales in the 12 months, but we know there are still many reasons for millions of consumers to fall in love with the car and put them in their garage or parking lot.
Oh yes, and the $ 35,000 base model 3 is not even on the market and there is no option to hire a model 3! Introducing both of the options will open the model 3 to many more buyers.