Funds offer little clarity about the fate of the USMCA, a tariff dispute


WASHINGTON – Should the interim elections have to erase the uncertainty of tariffs, trade and other hives on the window into Canadian-American affairs, well, look at the bizarre world of politics in the United States.

The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives was "very close to complete victory" for President Donald Trump. The elections are over and not over, thanks to the dispute over the vote in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. There is a new trade agreement, but the White House and Canada are still staring at steel and aluminum.

They are so fortunate to receive, when or when the new Congress will ratify a new agreement between the US and Mexico and Canada.

"We do not know yet," said lawyer in Ohio, Dan Ujczo, about how the new members of the Parliament will likely vote when Capitol Hill takes over the American US dollar bonds, something that he is afraid of could now be a year or more.

Many designated voters have fallen to defeat in the middle ages, he said, including members of the John Culberson and Pete Sessions Congress in Texas, Minnesota Erik Paulsen and David Young, among others – introducing yet another element of uncertainty in the political dynamics that this The day you know a little.

Uncertain does not mean No, said Ujczo, a partner with US commercial and customs firm Dickinson Wright.

"Are they newcomers – will they pull in their own direction, or will they reflect the views of their constituencies?" he said. "There will be a lot of pressure on them to vote" Yes ", but it takes time – and maybe it's time we did not have it."

While it is difficult to win an agreement that appeared at 11 am six weeks after a 13-month marathon of heavy talks, a vote is expected, conditions for a nearly 25-year agreement to replace it, remain in force, federal officials in Ottawa they say.

Strong Republicans opposed to tariffs, such as Iowa senator Chuck Grassley and Mitch McConnell, most of the senators, are still round and have an impact, they warn. So there are prominent Democrats who prefer a new deal for the old, such as the head of the minority Senate Chuck Schumer and Ohio Sen Sherrod Brown.

But the prices of steel and aluminum are still close.

"There have been some high-level discussions, but there is no direct negotiation," said Canada's Ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, who said Friday that he plans to resume tariff talks with US commercial King Robert Lighthouse.

"I saw Ambassador Lighthouse last week and said," When you're ready, sit down and talk. ""

MacNaughton acknowledged that the intermediate questions could raise a number of questions, as they replied. But in the Canadian circles, there is little concern that the Congress will do anything else, but it will approve the deal when it comes to this.

"There is currently a lack of clarity," he said. "But when people start to understand the deal better, I think you'll be surprised at the level of support."

Another paradox: you might think that a weakened republican community would undermine Trump's doctrine of applying tariffs to gain more favorable trading conditions. In fact, if those members who survived the mid-term moments felt the need for closer coordination with the President, on the contrary, it could be true.

"The challenge is that the Administration of Trump, together with the American voter, creates a redeployment into the ideology of both sides," said Capri Cafaro, a former lawmaker in Ohio, who became a political academician in Washington.

"You have traditional free traders inside the republican party who believe that the rates are funny … then you have Trump the Republicans who truly accepted this more protectionist economic policy. These two sides of the republican party will not agree."

This may be part of the reason that, at the White House press conference on Tuesday, the president seemed really excited about the results, even though he took the time to read the list of Republican victims who were blocking him from campaigning.

"These are some people you know, for your reason not to stand up for … or for what we want. But for most people, it means a lot," he said. "I'm not sure I should be happy or sad, but I feel very well in this regard."

While it is true that the Democrats won in a number of congressional districts where tariffs were a question, for example, in the Ohio State Farm, the victory in victory was not enough to suggest Ujczo that the result should be regarded as a departure from Trump's doctrine of trade.

"What did not appear on Thursday, farmers, an agricultural state that, because of these tariff struggles, is losing half of its survival, moved to a party of democrats who did not," he said.

"I think it could be difficult to say that this is a support for the continuation of this trade policy, but it gives the president a long line".

– Follow James McCarten on Twitter @CdnPressStyle

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