Big money investors see the bull market ending in 2019



Managers also point out that they are increasingly engaging in active strategies and away from the passive approach that is gaining popularity so much in what has been a low-volatility environment.

Institutional investors have been preparing for the end of the bull market for several years, David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, said in an interview.

"The market is catching up what they have to think about, I think they've been positioning for a long time," he said. "For the most part they are staying in place, except US equities."

While warning about the US, There are 48 percent of institutional investors say the best emerging market opportunity will come in the Asia Pacific region.

The results come between a swastikish atmosphere on Wall Street.

The S & P 500 has risen 305 percent since the bar market bottom of March 2009, but has shown persistent signs of fatigue this year. A breach of geopolitical threats, from a nuclear North Korea to crackdown on bribey negotiations, political behavior at home, raising interest rates and a brewing US. China's trading war has disrupted the market this year and left it barely positive in the last month of trading.

The Federal Reserve, published in a paper published a week ago, warned that a "major" slump in stock prices could come if some of the same risks cited in the survey materialize.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists gave them a head start in 2019 on stocks, bonds and the US. It. Dollar, and invest on commodities and money.

"With wildcards everywhere (trade, goupolitics, deficits, protectionism), we have decided to focus on the macro scenarios that seem most likely and most relevant to equity market performance: (1) more Fed tightening, and (2) volatility," Savita Subramanian, boomer's equity and quantum strategies, said in a research note.

The company has a 2,900 goal for the S & P 500, which actually represents 7.5 percent up to the current level. But Subramanian noted that "We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019."

Responses to the NATSICS survey say that the biggest negative impacts to performance are likely to be geopolitical tents (77 percent), trade disputes (74 percent) and central bank tightening (65 percent). The top portfolio risks are interest rates (56 percent), volatility spikes (52 percent) and regulations (32 percent).

Results also showed that 67 percent are worried that they take a huge risk, though 75 percent say they are ready to endorse their benchmarks to protect against downside market.

Institutions see debt as the biggest threat to financial stability, followed by asset bubbles and a geopolitical crisis.


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