There is a small uptick in expectations, but the economy remains the big concern – 12/09/2018

The worst is over? The definition / question that tortures the national government breaks again at the end of the year, starting with Two statistics match. On the one hand, the surveys detected a Small expectations of expectations Economic however, on the other, inflation, tariffs and unemployment, among others, continue to be at the top of the concerns of Argentines.

Clarin He agreed to five civilian viewpoints that supported the visit. They are national surveys of Management & Fit, D Alessia Irol – Bursttstine, Opinaia, B & R – Query And Ricardo Rouvier & Associates.

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This information is key for a couple of reasons:

1) Between the end of 2017 and the beginning of the year, the fall in economic expectations is "the" fact that accompanied the collapse of President Mauricio Macri. Can anything reverse its event now?

2) Less than nine months ago from the primaries, the sense of the people about their future, analysts say, Affects his voting tendency.

These are the main conclusions of the surveys.

Management & Fit

The national survey conducted by the M & F consultancy exclusively for Clarin Confirmed in the first week of December a rebound in economic expectations.

The work, known as the "index of optimism", makes the image of the government of Morisio Macri in political and economic affairs, both current issues and a look at the future. The latest data has been generalized in "political optimism" and Another improvement in the expectations of "Economic Optimism".

Van Pablo Hedo, from M & F, explains: "In economic affairs, the improvement in expectations about the future of the economy continues, reflecting a 1.2 point increase over the sub-index of economic expectations. Indications that are considered in confidence in the current economy are continually associated with an important anchor At the variable prices, Which became 1.8 pessimistic point ".

"In terms of policy," Hedo continued, "the expectation was 1.7 points more positive and the assessment of the current diagnosis, 1.6." The greatest increases are in the indicators that reflect the perceived capacity of the government to solve problems (+2.6 points) and in this case involving the concern at the time of government (+2.9).

D Alessia Irol – Bursttstine

The consultant released a few days ago the survey he had in November. They are 1,439 cases in the country. The work is called "Social and Political Humor" and there are different variables. When reading the evolution of the data on the economic image, Almost everyone has a speech. Always keeping in mind that they come from a very pronounced low.

For example, when they ask people how they evaluate the economic situation compared to last year, those who choose "worse" fall from 92 to 89 points. Or when they are asked how they assume the economic situation will be within a year, The optimists rise from 34% to 37% And the pessimis fall from 63% to 58%.

This company is one of those who works "the most important thing". And it is clear Eximence of economic issues. The ranking is punctuated by "inflation," "uncertainty in the economic situation of the country," "increase in electricity, gas and other increases" and "increase in taxes and tax pressure". Just in the fifth place appears "Insecurity / Delinquency".

Opinaia

There is another of the polluters that makes a monthly monitoring of "Public Opinion". Last month they were 3,000 cases in the country. And there they registered some improvements for the government.

Examples? In two months (from September to November), the negative impact on the "current economic situation" fell from six points (from 70% to 64%), and the positive (23% to 29%) up to six points. Also, expectations rebounded: Those who believe that the situation will "improve" is from 33% to 35% in the last month, and those who believe that "will be worse" surprised 43% to 38%.

Anyway, it insists: The rebound occurs in a delicate situation. Opinia registered, for example, that more than 70% of the respondents cut "a lot / enough" expenses to "go out to eat out" or "outlines like going to the movies, theater, recitals". 87% said they "look for promotions" to buy and 80%, which prizes "quality prices".

B & R – Query

This measurement was seen as a visible person Gustavo Marangoni, a former scolist officer. Between the end of November and the beginning of December they relived 1224 cases throughout the country.

The consultant makes a Double tracking on the look at the economyOn the one hand, the stick; On the other, the general of the country. Both have a small improvement. The "Personal Economy Index" was 31-33.9 points; And the "Index of Argentine Economy," 30-30.

The work of this company also shows the prevention of these Concerns about economic issues: Manage inflation (38%) and unemployment (30%). Third and fourth appear, far away, insecurity (15%) and corruption (12%).

Ricardo Rouvier & Associates

The consultant, who has been working for years for the Kurdner and continues to study his studies at the University of Ciudadana, has given his monthly monitoring days back, which has expanded until the first days of December to measure the G20 effect. As Clarin stated, in a great deal to establish the electoral polarization between Cristina and Macri, it was a positive impact on the image of the president after the international peak.

Ravier also recorded a Improving the government on a sensitive issue: The price rise. Since September, the number of interviewees has fallen, which reflects that inflation "will not decrease" (from 70.8% to 65.7% in November) and in parallel those who believe that "will decrease" (13, 3% to 17.6%), .