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Economists and consultants agreed that last month has occurred for the first time in several months A deceleration in the price increase, which determined that the rise in the cost of living in November was finally between 2.5 and 2.8 percent.
This was estimated at "Rio Nigro" by some consultants, which have shown a coincident point that in November there was no increase in rates over the subway increase for the federal capital, which contributed to a lower cost escalation, In addition to the resourceful image that lives on the domestic economy.
Similarly, annual inflation will be between 45 and 47 percent, a very high figure, although it should be clarified that, with the normalization of Indec, the numbers are fully adjusted to the daily reality of citizens.
The official body will spread the evolution of the consumer price index for November next Thursday.
On this particular point, the economist and consultant Maria Castiglioni anticipated that inflation in November was 2.5%.
"It was clear that there was a significant deceleration, and there was a clear influence that regulated prices remained stable, which was seen last month that in the first few days there was a drawback of inflation in October, but then in the The last two weeks it has stabilized a bit, "the economist stressed.
We have to consider that inflation in September is nothing less than 6.5 percent and October 5.4 percent, which currently practically halved in November.
"The drag of the price increase that remains for December is low, so we believe that in December, the inflation level will be similar to November, there may be some seasonal effect at the end of the year, but we do not believe That will affect the values at the same time, "said Castiglioni.
At the last point, the consultant said that end-of-year sales generally generate pressure on the prices of certain items but clarified that at the end of 2018, with recession and falling consumption, "that effect will be much more limited and even Bids are multiplying because traders are looking to recover some land for this day. "
"We consider the same as in the year inflation will be around 47% and the beginning of 2019 we see that although it is not yet fully known how much the rate will increase, it will be a scenario quite similar to November and December, Though year-round rates are still going to continue their tall figures, "he adds. The economist
It is clear that in the scenario of low interest rates and with the latest market surveillance (REM) that the central bank made, in which a lower inflation expectation was concluded for the next 12 months, there were concrete reasons for which the entity decided to Promote a loader in the Leliq rate of titles below 60 percent, a figure that remains astronomical.
For the consulting of Orlando Ferrari in November, there was also a sharp rise in the price rise, making them accountable for the inflation of the last month by 2.5 percent and the total year-end of 46.5 percent.
"What could be noted in the past month was a much lower rate of increase in different sectors, even in some that are more complicated than food," said Fausto Spotorno, chief economist at the consulting consultancy.
With this somewhat more limited inflationary expectations, Spotorno stressed that for December they expect a similar climate in inflation to what happened in November, with some incidence of certain sectors by the end of the year, but without major consequences in general.
"December inflation will be below 3%, I think the closest figure would be between 2.6 and 2.8 percent," said the economist of the consulting firm Ferreres.
Spotorno also praised the decision taken by the central bank in recent weeks to reduce the interest rate and especially in the course of Thursday and Friday where Leliq's collapse fell below 60%.
"I think the central bank notes that inflation is loosening, that the dollar does not exert much pressure at this time and therefore sees space to continue reducing the rate, but in a careful way," said Spotorno.
In the same line, the economist and consultant Raul Ochoa estimated that November was somewhat more positive for inflation, which was calmed between 2.5 and 2.8 percent, and gradually "should begin to observe low inflation levels"
"Complicated with the monetary draft of the central bank and the pattern of reducing the financial deficit without doubt that it contributes to lower inflation, we must also consider that we are in a recessive situation that can be destabilized. The exchange rate as the 2019 elections approaches, I think it will be the nerve center, "added the economist.
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