The great risk that global economy will face in 2019



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The article signed by Correspondent Andrew Walker, notes that 2018 is a "reasonably tough" year with global growth close to 3.7%, with the US expansion falling by about 3%, while China. Compared to the last few years, this has been slowing down, but it would still be 6%.

"Consumer confidence will be an important variable for the global economy. Most projections suggest that the recovery of a decade-long recession will continue for a little more than a year," the analysis indicates.

"Trumponomics"

For the BBC, one of the major risks that threaten the global economy is the economic policy pursued by the US. There. Management. Donald Trump, Which will show lower growth than 2018.

One of the measures that stimulate the economy was the tax cut, but the question is whether this clean-up will continue to generate employment and investment, or vice versa, its effect will dissipate.

On the other hand, definition of these Federal Reserve (Fed), The US There. Central Bank, on interest rates. Will interest rates continue to keep inflation close to 2%, in line with the road followed in 2018?

In the last few days, the President of the Fed, Jerome PowellAttempted to calm financial markets worried about the United States' economic slowdown, promised that although the deposit is tough, the institution will be vulnerable to the downside.

"We will be patient as we guard the economy Evolve," Powell told the American Economic Association, providing that the Fed was not on a predetermined path of interest rate hikes and hinting that it could pause its adjustment process, as it did in 2016.

Trump and Fed are in danger, and their conflict has had a negative impact on the markets in 2018.

Commercial war

On the other hand, it remains to be seen how the trade war between the US and the United States. There. And China will continue, one year later, as there was a mutual increase in tarifs on products between the two countries. New rises and obstacles are not ruled out in this tension.

The United States was embarking on a major confrontation with China, as President Trump believes the Asian country is stealing technology from the United States. There. Companies do business in their territory.

Europe

Given the immensity of it Broxit, The UK Exit from the EU What would take shape at the end of March, in Europe there is uncertainty, especially in trade.

It was also interested in recent economic data showing a slowdown in euro area growth. "But it may be the beginning of a lower economic recovery, which, in addition, is never strong," the Bible said.

Recession?

The stock markets have had a difficult period in 2018, closing it as one of the worst – if not the worst – since the decade-ago crisis. For many analysts, the nature of stocks and corporate bonds can predict a recession.

"A phenomenon known as the" yield curve "was a more reliable predictor of a recession, although it is not very precise when it may happen. Despite this, economists believe that the United States May approach a recession in 2020, "walker says.

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