Only 48 hours after the closing of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires – What is struck by an alleged business troupe between the US and China and a bullish spike in stocks the day after- Wall Street plummeted: The industry indexDj Jones fell 799 points in one day and closed the week almost 1500 points. The Nasdaq, That Tuesday, December 4, fell -3.80% and the S & P 500 -3.22%.
The background and the Argentina newspapers
For the lack of confidence in the United States-China truce, Aggravated by the arrest of the executive Huawei, Wall Street also fell on Thursday in the same week – there is no operation in the US. It. On Wednesday – though Pillow a late rebound in technology stocks, After the declarations of regional presidents of the Federal Reserve.
However, the next day, the three main indices closed, again, with significant falls. This Monday, the actions in the USA they have a little Spike After those days. The Dow and the NASDAQ have also served the margins year-to-year (+ 0.42% and 2.6%, respectively), but not the index of 500 large listed companies (S & P500), with -1.83% per year.
In this way, Last week, there was a new upswing that accompanies those of October and February. On October 10 of this year, Wall Street has experienced its worst decline since February the Nasdaq has been worst since June 2016 when it was the Brexit. On February 5, 2018, the Dow Jones suffered from the greatest drop in points in its history, with a decline of 1,175.21 units.
The shares called ADR are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NISC) and Argentina, but it remains the same asset. In other words, it is the same company that only quotes in two places, and the difference is the price adjusted by the exchange rate. EFE / Justin Lane
In this context, the Argentine papers in New York (the ADR), in the first week of December (from the closing of Friday 30/11 to 7/12) Mixed returns. In some cases, they managed to reduce losses by almost 9% as Corporas Amica. Tennis, For example, closed that week at -6.1% (they are companies linked to the scandal Of the notebooks). From the green side is transportadora Gas Del Sur (TGS) that accumulates + 3% so far this month. However, if the percentage is concerned with this year, the numbers are plummeted: Fall, in actions such as overwhelming, reach 70% below.
What are ADAMs?
The actions called ADR are cited in New York Stock Exchange (NYSC) And in Argentina, but it is still the same asset. In other words, it is the same company that only quotes in two places, and the difference is the price adjusted by the exchange rate.
"In the last two weeks at least, the Argentine sard, except in specific cases, has a positive effect, even in the middle of the twists and turns of the business war." So, shares like TGS and Galicia have been at least for The time being on the sidelines of the final Wall Street declines. They defended the comings and grooves between the trumpet and its Chinese pair. On the other hand, in the case of actions committed in judicial matters such as Tenaris, Teri and Loma Negra, have suffered from the attacks of the potential desecration of the judicial escalation, and yet they see a high degree of uncertainty"He says Clarin Emiliano Wax head of the brokers' research Alchemy values When analyzing until the close of last week,
Wax, however, differentiated with respect to the annual map in the Dock: "The fall of 70% of some papers and from the market in general so far has to do with the deterioration of local macroeconomics, With a expected fall in GDP of 2.5% and 3% and with a government that has to go out and ask the IMF for financing to close its financial program after the financing markets for our country are closed. Add to this a mega-devaluation, increase in inflation and doubt about the conductivity of next year's change"
Only 48 hours after the closing of the celebrated G20 summit in Buenos Aires – which ended with a supposed commercial troupe among the US. And China-Wall Street plummeted: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799 points in one day. The market does not have the agreement. Juices / Kevin Lamarque / file photo
Jorge Neyro, from the ACM consultancy, Contributes his view: "Wall Street stores fell close to 3% two days last week, due to the renewed US-China tensions. The flattening of the curve of American Treasury bonds that could indicate a recession in the face of the North American economy. In this context, Admits much of the post-20 earnings. Likewise, some companies are affected by new news about the cause of the notebooks and possible demands of investors for the losses in the contributions. "
For Nero, the fall of adrors in the year has to do with a series of local and external factors: "External markets have a lot of volatility, but the Argentine crisis and the judicial issues have a strong impact." Although the mervel and the ads are typically coupled because in many ways the difference is that they are quoted in pesos or dollars, and that bonds are another type of asset, Neira evaluates that "Both stock and bonds are down if there is a lot of bad to Argentine risk as it happened in the year's crisis."
The business war
The landslides in the United States have their spearhead in the technological field. The stock stars, the calls FAANG Stock (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Neflix and Google's parent company, alphabet) drag sharp droplets to their highest peaks of the year: FB (-35%), Apple (-27%), Amazon (-18%), Netfilx (-35%), Google (-18%).
Amazon came to rise more than 70% by October. Then it fell, up to now, more than 18%. (API photo / Mike Stewart, file)
Why did they fall? The Commercial War, which is, the Chinese imported components, which has impact on some companies such as Apple or Amazon, has been affected by the Commercial War of many American corporations. The analysts, however, They introduce other elements such as the growth of this year, such as Amazon, which rose by more than 70% until October.
The enthusiasm after the G-20 summit is diluted with these days. Robert Lighthizer, Secretary of Foreign Trade, was appointed as the leader of the U.S. group. It. Negotiators, a decision fell well as it is known for its frontal criticism of Beijing's trade policies. Larry Koudow, Trump's major economic adviser, called "careful optimism" about the truce.
Perspectives on ADR
What perspectives you see in adrs in the context of renewed US China's tension and internal factors, such as the case of bribery notebooks?
"There are newspapers where it is worth and the case of TGs or SEPU (Central Porta), but the fact is that the US-China tension of the issue will be around the polls. After the fall in Argentine assets throughout the year, we believe that today the impact of factors coming from abroad is marginal, And we see this short-term decoupling between medium and long bonds and Argentine stocks, where it is still to be defined if the shares are going to give ground or if the bonds and land risk will return to the level of a month ago " Comments Emiliano Wachs.
The enthusiasm after the G-20 summit is diluted with these days. Robert Lighthizer, Secretary of Foreign Trade, is appointed as the leader of the U.S. group. It. Negotiators, a decision fell well as he was known for his outspoken criticism of Beijing's trade policies. (Photo by Jim Watson / AFP)
Strictly speaking, The spread between global 2021 and global 2019 already exceeds 600 basis points. The first one has an IRR (upward rate) of 10.7%, while the global 19.33% yield. In this differential, which is to say that the higher the wear the higher the risk assessment, the market's marketability is seen in 2019. For its part, this Monday, the ADR returned to trading in more than 5% cases.
"Hard to predict that", Comes Neiro on the perspectives on the Argentine papers in New York. "In the medium term, if the Argentine economy is growing again with lower volatility of the exchange rate, they can show profits again.But the reasons that you mention – business war, judicial situations – may continue to affect"