The economic keys that look at the markets this week


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October has dropped by 5.4%, accumulating 45.9% over the last twelve months, As a result of strong increases in rates, prepaid and clothing and footwear.

According to Orlando Ferreres Economic Studies Center, inflation in November was 2.5% per month. "The price level was ahead of show signs of a slowdown in its growth rate in November," he said.

He considers that "in particular, the items with the highest incidence are food and beverages, together with a variety of goods, with an adjustment of 2.5% and 5.8% respectively.

Although the sharp rise in prices affects the entire company, it is the lower income sectors that suffer most severely.

According to data from INDEC, by October, the basic basket of food and basic requirements – which determine the poverty index – has accumulated an increase of 54.6%. While the basket of indigens, which only complements food, recorded a year-to-year increase of 51.5%.

The consultant Elipisis, on the other hand, calculated that inflation was 2.8% during November. Meanwhile, the market expectations survey (REM) issued by the central bank said that analysts expect a slowdown in the rise in the cost of living in the coming months.

Beyond this incipient brake on the inflatable set, The year will end with a numericized price increase between 45 and 50%, one of the highest rates in the world and comparable to what happened in 1991.

For the president of the Central Bank, Javier González Fraga, the trend will slow down in 2019 and inflation will be closer to 20 than the 30% estimated by the consultants.

Treasury returns to treasury bills in dollars at 4.75%

The Ministry of Finance will be tender between Tuesday and Wednesday Treasury bills in dollars (lett) to 196 days, with a nominal annual rate of 4.75%.

The reception of offers will begin at 10 on Tuesday and end 15 on Wednesday, informed the portfolio by Directed by Nicolas Dujovne.

The maximum price for the "let's" It. $ 975.13 for each US $ 975.13. It. $ 1,000 of nominal value, which is equivalent to a nominal annual rate of 4.75%.

The tender will be carried out by a price indication in which it will be a competitive and non-competitive section.

To participate in the competitive tranche, the prices must be expressed for each $ 1,000 of the original nominal value of two decimal places. Tenders presented in the non-competitive tranche must only include the amount to be subscribed.

The subscription can be made both in Pesos and in dollars, and the exchange rate for the subscription will be corresponding to a "3500" communications from December 11.

Leliq rate

It should be remembered that last Wednesday The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (CAPOM) eliminated the interest rate floor of 60% What has been the effect since August 30, after setting the "significant fall in inflation expectations in two consecutive months".

Meanwhile, this week as the rest of this month will be important to account for the decisions taken by the BCRA at the rate, taking into account the inflation figure to be announced on Thursday. Also, it will be crucial to see how the market responds to possible changes in it.

In this context, The audit and consulting firm PVC Argentina consider "a positive news for the real economy" The decision of the central bank to eliminate the floor of the monetary policy interest rate, Which was 60% since the August of August.

In a report, the company supported the modification, because "the persistent high interest rates will restrict access to financing for many sectors of the economy."

The 60% rate, recalled by the PVC, "was mainly to give a clear signal of the direction of monetary policy in a time of high financial and exchange volatility."

The consultant noted that the elimination of the floor of the rate and the decrease in the volume of the volume of the foreign exchange intervention volume "were in line with the improvement observed in recent months in the inflation expectations," collected by The market in November.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that the BCRA will announce the objectives and plans on the development of the monetary, financial, credit and exchange policy for the year 2019.

In accordance with Article 42 of the Organic Charter, "the Bank must issue its objectives and plans before the beginning of each year with respect to the development of monetary, financial, credit and exchange policies, if there are significant changes in its objectives and plans , The bank must disclose its causes and measures are taken accordingly.

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