The initial effect is the issue of a resident state that began at the beginning of the second quarter, which is expected to be extended, in the inter-American comparison until the beginning of 2020, in the case of the Consensus Market, and even from the agency Estimates. International
The expected reach of the basic indicators
For December, the REM shows an expected inflation of 2.7% One-tenth of percentage points less than in October, and falls to 2.5% for next January; And 2.3% in February and March
However, with respect to the previous year, the rate of increase of the consumer price index Will reach the peak of more than 48% which would be registered in November until next March, Through inertial effects, but from there an evil Rally is projected in a standing way.
The forecasts for 2018 are held with respect to the previous publication: decline of 2.4%; For 2019, it is expected to decelerate to a 1.2% recession, two tenths of percentage points less than in October; While for the following year it accelerates by a tenth, to a 2.5 percent reactivation.
A determinant factor of the projected turning point in the activity rhythm, in line with the expected discharge of the inflation rate, will be the sustainable reduction in monetary policy to mention the interest rate resulting from the daily tender of the lelik to 7 days deadline.
The forecast for December of the annualized monthly average of the monetary policy rate was reduced to 500 basic points, going from 65% annually in the previous survey to 60% in the present, as was the cut yesterday; And for the current month, the projections were attributed to 58.9% annually.
It would be a Clear signal of confidence in the sustainability of the new monetary policy scheme of zero expansion of the amount of money and primary fiscal deficit, As it returned to cast the forecasts of the renowned consensus of a balanced first-ever outcome for 2019.
With similar words, yesterday, Andrew Kristofany, President of the Bank Santander Rio, expressed an interest in the annual meeting of journalists, among those who participated Infobox: "The governmental decision to bet on a competitive and floating exchange rate, primary financial balance and zero emission monetary policy will allow economic growth to recover at some point in 2019. "