Now the central bank is preparing to buy dollars – 01/05/2019


Inside and outside the government there is an impression that now and in the short term Living dollars.

The idea is based on the fact that foreign customers who have pesos left and take foreign currency and that local buyers, who have pesos, do not feel tempted in the weeks to dollarize.

The central bank reported during the week of the process of Argentinean dollarization Last quarter fell to be in US $ There. $ 13 million dailys and sources of economy are betting that purchases due to hoarding can be reduced in the near future.

This new look is based on the exchange stability of the last two months and on the conviction that in a few days the central bank can buy dollars because the currency can break the exchange rate of the exchange rate.

The central corridors indicate that the tranquility of the exchange has been accelerated, in the last days by "Balsonaro effect", Referring to the fact that the assumption of the new president of Brazil and his liberated liberalization definitions is translated into a revaluation of the real fact that, in rebound, contributes to the stability of the Argentine currency that has been Devalued more than 50% in one year.

They also believe that these markets "They exaggerated" Last month's month-on-month mistrust climate for Argentina, with a landmark rate of more than 800 points (down 740 on Thursday). Top of distrust That has already been overcome.

The recovery of the Argentine bonds valued in dollars last days seems to support the idea of ​​the possible change in financial climate. It is still very explicit.

Without reason it is, in the main, they are satisfied with the outcome of the monetary policy agreement with the Monetary Fund and they assure that, even if they have to buy dollars, there will not be an excellent expansion.

Each central currency purchase of foreign currency involves the issuance of pesos, but they maintain that they will never exceed the equivalent of a 2% expansion of the monetary base.

In other words, they confirm that they will be very cautious, as noted in the official report of the BCRAC of the week in Lower interest rates. Another signal indicates that the government's main economic objective is to lower inflation somewhat.

All economic activity data shows a very poor 2018 and, in this, the high-rate hit has some responsibility.

Only in the comparative way is it enough to repeat that while the market expectations survey (the average of the consulting companies) forecasts an inflation rate of 28.7% this year, the liquidity character rate is 59.6% annually and those of a Overdraft in current account for a company exceeds that 63% per year.

With a very strong Fall into working capital loans Of companies and the cost of credit that doubles the expected inflation, it is difficult to bet on a recovery in the short term.

But the exchange rate calm and the wheat, corn and soybean export dollars will help improve the first quarter mood as well as any "black swan."

In addition to a change in climate, analysts are finishing it International market That in recent days he has changed his attention: the world that was very worried about the possible rise of interest rates in the United States Is now more pending lower China's growth That would slow down the global economy.

No one may be happy that the world grows less, but that the increase in the US is not. There. Course is more moderate. "Flight to quality" The capitals that left the emerging countries are taking liberation in the United States. There. The Treasury has emphasized the doubts about the possibilities of refinancing the indebted and Argentina-led debt ranks.

In the government, they also believe in a change in that aspect of the hand of which represents the IMF agreement. There. $ 57.1 million. "The market doesn't seem to understand that the fund's program isn't for 3 years Is to start refinancing in three years"Maintained an economical official of the region.

Both in the economy and the central bank are unsettled against what they consider a new time in terms of exchange. The next dollar is turning itself back And, especially, in an election year.

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