In the government they assure that the time of "good news" has arrived. But for the moment, their negative activity data will continue to coax with some favorable signals. And the strongest of them is that Inflation fell below 3% in November, marking the first significant deceleration after the August devaluation.
Consultants like Ellipsis, Which in general are very close to the consumer price index issued by the index, estimated that last month The index was close to 2.8%, Although there are still some values to be allocated to the latest account. But most of the companies that are dedicated to the job coincide (tenth more or less) with this review.
The previous months showed a strong price acceleration: 6.5% in September and 5.4% in October. Therefore, this is decreasing in November is an important fact and shows that The policies implemented by the central bank begin to take effect.
The increase in the interest rate, which is forward, with rates of up to 73.5% per year in the credit, was key to stabilizing the exchange rate. And with a greater weight of the dollar, but also a cooling of economic activity, the anti-inflation goes to work.
The decline in inflation gives space, on the other hand, for the central to continue with its policy of reducing interest rates. Yesterday, in fact, they fell to the lowest level since the daily tender of lelik started as a policy of monetary absorption. It stood at 60.2%.
Of course, to the extent that the inflation consolidates at levels of 2 to 2.5% per month, Interest rates should go down significantly. For now, levels of 60% mean a real rate higher than 20 points.
In December there are few elements that drive prices. IPF has announced a marginal deduction in Nafta, the first of the year. On the other hand, there are no increasing regular prices. And on the other hand the need to improve sales levels will produce hard discounts, especially the textile sector, but also in household appliances.
The decline in inflation, on the other hand, would also improve the purchase of power gradually. The expectation is that the real salary has already reached the bottom and begins a recovery, starting with the reopening of the parishes that have been fixed by different sectors.